Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio Temporal Model Comparison on the Earth Trapped Particle Forecast

On Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling

Hierarchical Bayesian space-time interpolation versus spatio-temporal BME approach

Abstract. The restrictions of the analysis of natural processes which are observed at any point in space or time to a purely spatial or purely temporal domain may cause loss of information and larger prediction errors. Moreover, the arbitrary combinations of purely spatial and purely temporal models may not yield valid models for the space-time domain. For such processes the variation can be ch...

Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model

BACKGROUND For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply prov...

Climatological Analysis of Tornado Report Counts Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model

Recent evidence suggests that tornado report counts for monthly or longer periods may be correlated to climate indices in space and time. However, climatological analysis of tornado reports is complicated by reporting errors, the non-Gaussian nature of count data and rare events, and the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. Typically, such factors have not been formally included in the...

Classification of Traffic Events based on the Spatio-Temporal MRF Model and the Bayesian Network

In order to support safe and efficient driving, it is important to classify the behaviors of vehicles and to understand what is going on the traffic situations. For that purpose, our system employed a vision sensor rather than spot sensors because of its rich information. We then have developed a dedicated vehicle tracking algorithm based on the Spatio-Temporal MRF model which is robust against...